Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
